Velocity Is a Shadow; Throughput Is Reality
In the previous post, we argued that estimation is a smell—a signal that teams are compensating for unmanaged uncertainty. Velocity, as a direct descendant of estimation, inherits that smell. Scrum reminds us that the purpose of a Sprint is to produce an *Increment of value* , not to consume a predetermined number of points. Velocity measures effort expended inside the team. Customers, however, experience outcomes: features delivered, bugs fixed, and capabilities unlocked. No customer has ever benefited from a higher velocity. Why Velocity Persists Velocity survives because it is visible, numeric, and easy to chart. It gives leaders something to point at and teams something to optimize. Unfortunately, that optimization rarely aligns with value delivery. When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. When velocity becomes important, teams respond predictably. Estimates inflate. Stories are sliced to satisfy point targets rather than user needs. Lower-risk, lower-valu...